CHICAGO (Dow Jones)–Estimates for increased world corn and soybean carryout
issued in a U.S. Department of Agriculture report Friday are bearish for
Chicago Board of Trade grain and soybean futures, traders said.
CBOT corn and wheat are called to open the day session 1-2 cents per bushel
lower. CBOT soybeans are called to open 2-3 cents lower.
The day session begins at 10:30 a.m. EDT.
The USDA, in its April supply and demand report, raised its projection for
2009-10 world corn carryout to 144.2 million tons from its March estimate of
140.2 million. Carryout, also called ending stocks, is the amount of corn left
after all supply and demand factors have been taken into account.
The increase looks “just nasty” for the corn market and should weigh on
prices, a CBOT floor trader said.
World soybean ending stocks were pegged at 62.96 million tons, up from
USDA’s March estimate of 60.67 million. The government trimmed its estimate for
world wheat ending stocks to 195.8 million tons from 196.8 million, although a
trader said global supplies remain large.
The government’s estimates for U.S. carryout were seen as neutral to
friendly. Projections for 2009-10 U.S. corn, soybean and wheat ending stocks
were below expectations.
“Everybody thought [USDA] would raise the [U.S.] corn and the soybeans, and
they didn’t,” the floor analyst said. “But the world numbers are way up.”
The USDA pegged U.S. corn ending stocks at 1.899 billion bushels. That was
up from its March estimate of 1.799 billion but below the average analyst
estimate of 1.909 billion.
The USDA estimated U.S. soybean ending stocks at 190 million bushels, below
the average analyst estimate of 209 million and unchanged from its March
estimate. U.S. wheat carryout was seen at 950 million bushels, below the
average analyst estimate of 1.001 billion and USDA’s March estimate of 1.001
billion.