Five Market Changers to Watch This Week
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• Trade figures: What’s to become of the U.S. dollar? It may be oversold, as some experts note, but the Fed’s big easing decision last week promises more pressure as a global currency war looms. International trade figures out this week (Wednesday 8:30 a.m.) are backward-looking, but expect investors to watch it carefully for signs of growing imbalances as exporting nations react to the Fed.
• Wealth effect: What was the point, finally, of the Fed’s move to print up to $600 billion in cash for the U.S. economy? In part, the bank thinks it will trigger consumer spending by pushing up 401(k) and pension balances. The first glimpse of the so-called “wealth effect,” if it happens at all, could show up in the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment numbers (Friday 9:55 a.m.).
• Public spending: Investors are excited about the sweeping GOP win last week, but nobody has yanked away the checkbook quite yet. Treasury’s latest accounting of how deep in the hole the American taxpaying public finds itself is due Wednesday at 2 p.m.
• Trucks and trains: Market experts say that they will be watching key transport releases this week for signs that a double-dip is here or has been averted. One is the Ceridian-UCLA Pulse of Commerce, usually released on the 10th of each month, which measures diesel fuel purchases by truckers nationwide in real time. Another is the Association of American Railroads weekly and monthly traffic reports, which vary but often come out in the first half of the month.
• Jobless claims: Yes, the unemployment rate is likely to stay high for months. Still, any sign of a drastic decline in new claims for unemployment benefits could be interpreted by the bulls as a signal to charge harder (Wednesday 8:30 a.m.).
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