Durables orders made a nice comeback in January but there is a lot in the detail.
Durables orders in January rebounded 2.7 percent, following a revised -0.4
percent dip in December (previously estimated at down 2.3 percent).
Excluding transportation, new orders for durable goods fell back, declining
3.6 percent after a 3.0 percent rise in December and 4.6 percent boost in
November. The headline number looks very good for January but a key
question is whether ex-transportation offsets that. Basically, the ex-transportation
decrease followed two strong months, meaning the decline is not so disconcerting.
Durables manufacturing continues on a moderate uptrend.
|Market Consensus Before Announcement
following a 0.1 percent dip the month before. Weakness was primarily
in nondefense aircraft orders. Excluding transportation, new orders for
durable goods were more favorable, advancing 0.5 percent after a
4.5 percent surge in November. The headline number was tugged
down by the transportation component which fell a monthly 12.8 percent
in December after declining 13.1 percent the month before.
The latest decrease was mainly in nondefense aircraft.
manufacturers for immediate and future delivery of factory hard goods.
The first release, the advance, provides an early estimate of durable
goods orders. About two weeks later, more complete and revised data
are available in the factory orders report. The data for the previous
month are usually revised a second time upon the release of the new month’s data.
Data Source: Haver Analytics
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